[Press Release] Prognosfruit 2024: Apple and Pear Crop Forecast Released

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Aug. 7, 2024 – The Prognosfruit conference is Europe’s leading annual event for the apple and pear sector, gathering apple and pear experts from across Europe and beyond. Prognosfruit 2024 is currently taking place in Budapest, Hungary. During today’s conference, the World Apple and Pear Association released its crop forecast for the upcoming 2024/25 season. The forecast for apples is set at 10.2 million metric tons, 11.3% lower than last year. The projected pear crop shows a slight recovery from 2023, increasing by 4.9% to 1.79 million metric tons.

Prognosfruit 2024 is organized by WAPA in cooperation with FruitVeB (Magyar Zöldség-Gyümölcs Szakmaközi Szervezet). The meeting opened with an address by Hungarian Minister of Agriculture István Nagy, who presented the agenda and priorities of the European Council of Agriculture Ministers. This agenda includes the future direction of agricultural policy in these challenging times and the future of the EU’s common agricultural policy, securing the competitiveness of production, and addressing the impact of climate change, the sustainability debate, food security, labor issues and geopolitical uncertainties.

In 2024, apple production in the European Union among the top producing countries included in the forecast is estimated to decrease by 11.3% compared with last year to a total of 10,207,405 metric tons. This year’s crop forecast is also 13.6% below the average of the previous three years. Regarding the main varieties, Golden Delicious production is set to shrink by 10.2% to a total of 1,972,514 metric tons, while the output of Gala, the second-largest variety, is expected to decrease by 11.1% to 1,350,835 metric tons. The production of Red Delicious is estimated to grow by 2.8%, while the output of Idared is projected to be 18.4% lower than in 2023.

Meanwhile, the EU pear crop in 2024 is estimated to grow by 4.9% compared with last year, reaching a total of 1,790,229 metric tons. This increase is attributable to a recovery in Italy’s production (+120.5% compared with 2023), despite contractions in the Belgian and Dutch figures (−26.6% and −8.7%, respectively). In 2024, the production of Conference pears is forecast to decrease by 13.5% to 776,128 metric tons. The output of Williams’ bon chrétien pears, on the other hand, should grow by 33.8%. Abate Fetel production is expected to recover to 124,832 metric tons (+131.8%).

The market balance will be influenced by a relative steadiness of the volume destined for the fresh market due to stable production in the western part of the European Union (France, Italy and Spain). On the other hand, the central and eastern regions of the European Union have been heavily impacted by poor blossoming, late frost and hail, leading to smaller crops in Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Austria. This will lead to a lower supply for apple processing in the 2024/25 season.

Overall, the outlook for the season is positive and should provide opportunities for better returns for the sector, which still faces the challenges of inflation and rising costs during the past months.

About WAPA

The World Apple and Pear Association was founded in August 2001 with the objectives of providing a forum for discussion on matters of interest to the apple and pear business and initiating recommendations to strengthen the sector. The current president of the association is Jeff Correa (Pear Bureau Northwest, United States) and the current vice president is Nick Dicey (Hortgro, South Africa). WAPA membership includes the following countries and areas: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Chile, China, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Moldova, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Poland, Scandinavia, Slovenia, South Africa, Ukraine, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Images: Pixabay (main image), World Apple and Pear Association (body images)