China’s Rising Grape Quality and Production Further Reduce Imports

According to the most recent China: Fresh Deciduous Fruit Annual report published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service, China’s fresh table grape production is estimated to reach 14.2 million metric tons in the 2024/25 season (June to May). This higher production and enhanced quality are expected to boost exports to 620,000 metric tons. Concurrently, imports are projected to keep falling, reaching a remarkable 50% decline from the 2022/23 season.

Since the current season began, no major grape-growing areas have encountered weather anomalies, with the exception of Henan and Anhui provinces, which suffered consistent rains over the summer. Forecasts indicate that overall grape quality across the country will remain good. China’s output is projected to reach 14.2 million metric tons, up 5% from the 13.5 million tons registered in 2023/24. Despite an ongoing decline in planting area, which is expected to fall from 728,000 hectares last season to 725,000 hectares this season, grape output is anticipated to rise further owing to higher yields achieved through the use of enhanced agricultural technologies.

In addition to greater productivity, new cultivation technologies, such as various types of greenhouses, have substantially improved the flavor and appearance of China’s table grapes. Meanwhile, modern storage methods have significantly prolonged the supply season. According to industry sources, around 85% of locally cultivated grapes are consumed fresh, with the remaining 15% being used to manufacture processed products, primarily wine and raisins.

Market research shows that Chinese consumers tend to favor grapes that are crisp, seedless, sweet and rich in flavor. According to traders, red varieties are the most popular, followed by black and green varieties. In response to consumer preferences, China’s grape industry is continuing to develop and introduce new varieties, with a strong focus on seedless ones. Shine Muscat, for example, has quickly risen in popularity in recent years, squeezing traditional varieties such as Red Globe and Kyoho from the market. Another new variety, Nina Queen, rapidly gained favor among growers immediately following its release. Nina Queen is a bright red, medium-to-late-maturing variety with tender flesh and a rich floral aroma. Its taste and flavor are considered by many superior to conventional varieties, which explains why it is so widely sought after by consumers. However, Nina Queen requires more sophisticated cultivation methods than those used for traditional grapes, posing certain challenges for farmers, and seedlings are not as readily obtained.

In regard to market prices, data from the China Fruit Marketing Association indicate that the average purchase price of Kyoho grapes in early August stood at 9.33 yuan ($1.28) per kilogram, a slight decrease from the same period of last year. By contrast, the price of Shine Muscat grapes has plummeted this year owing to a rapid increase in output.

Following the improvements in domestic grape production, China has reduced its imports by more than half over the past five years. This downward trend is projected to continue in 2024/25 given the lower market prices — especially in the case of Shine Muscat — and the longer supply season resulting from advanced farming and storage technologies. Specifically, grape imports into China in the 2024/25 season are expected to total 85,000 metric tons, compared with 118,500 metric tons in 2023/24 and 175,700 metric tons in 2022/23, with the latter corresponding to a staggering 51.6% decrease for this season. Imported grapes, typically originating from Southern Hemisphere countries such as Australia, Peru and Chile, which benefit from zero tariffs on grape exports to China, will be used to meet consumer demand during China’s off-season between January and May.

Driven by the drop in domestic prices, China’s grape exports are expected to expand significantly in 2024/25, rising to 620,000 metric tons from 498,600 metric tons last season. By taking advantage of shorter shipping times and significantly improved grape quality, Chinese companies have been increasing exports to key Southeast Asian markets, particularly Thailand and Vietnam. Furthermore, China’s grape exports to Kyrgyzstan and Russia are also increasing rapidly.

Images: Pixabay (main image), U.S. Department of Agriculture (body images)

This article was based on a Chinese article. Read the original article.