Global Macadamia Market Outlook for 2024

According to the World Macadamia Organisation, global demand for macadamia nuts, measured on a kernel basis, is projected to increase significantly from 64,000 metric tons in 2022 to 137,000 metric tons in 2027, representing 2.1-fold growth. China’s demand for macadamia nuts, also measured on a kernel basis, was 17,500 metric tons in 2022. Actual consumption surged to 29,500 metric tons in 2023, corresponding to a year-on-year growth of nearly 70%, far exceeding the WMO’s earlier prediction of 20,300 metric tons for the Chinese market.

In 2022, China surpassed North America to become the world’s largest consumer of macadamia nuts and is expected to maintain rapid growth over the next five years. China’s demand for macadamia nuts is projected to increase to 46,500 metric tons in 2027, approximately 2.7 times the amount registered in 2022. This growth is expected to be driven primarily by three market segments: in-shell snacks, kernel snacks and food processing ingredients. Demand from these segments is expected to rise from 13,000 to 28,000 metric tons, from 1,000 to 8,000 metric tons and from 2,000 to 8,000 metric tons, respectively.

As a luxury nut particularly popular among young people, macadamia nuts consumed in China are partially sourced from Yunnan, with the remainder mainly imported from Australia, South Africa and Kenya. According to the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council, global production of macadamia nuts is estimated to reach 338,000 metric tons in 2024 (in-shell basis at 3.5% moisture).

Australia’s in-shell production is expected to reach 56,000 metric tons in 2024, with Queensland accounting for over 70% of this output. The expansion of cultivation areas, particularly new orchards in the Bundaberg region, has contributed to the steady growth in production. However, above-average rainfall in most major growing regions has hampered harvesting, affecting early shipments. Queensland experienced a drought in early 2023, followed by wetter conditions later in the year, leading to significant size variations between early- and late-maturing varieties. Overall, the quality of Australian macadamia nuts in 2024 appears good, with an increase in total kernel recovery and nut size compared with 2023.

South Africa’s in-shell production is projected to hit 92,000 metric tons in 2024. Despite the challenges posed by the El Niño phenomenon, favorable weather conditions have led to a significant increase in production compared with 2023. This growth is primarily attributed to the maturation of many orchards established in the late 2010s. While harvesting has been delayed in some regions, the overall nut quality has improved markedly.

Guatemala’s in-shell production for 2024 is estimated at 15,000 metric tons. The dry and hot weather caused by El Niño has significantly impacted flowering. Additionally, the low market prices for macadamia nuts have caused some growers to neglect the maintenance of their trees. In some regions, harvesting has also been delayed in the hope that prices will rise.

Kenya’s in-shell production is projected to reach 46,000 metric tons in 2024. Low macadamia prices in 2023 led to reduced investment by growers in their orchards, and flooding also affected production. However, these losses are expected to be largely offset by gains in the second harvest later in 2024. With farm gate prices for macadamia nuts nearly doubling, better crop care is predicted, making the 2025 season promising.

Brazil’s in-shell production is expected to be 6,500 metric tons in 2024, a decrease from 2023. This reduction is primarily attributable to extreme dry weather during the flowering period and multiple heatwaves during the growing season. Furthermore, low market prices continue to put pressure on the industry, resulting in reduced inputs in crop maintenance, particularly with respect to fertilizers.

Image: World Macadamia Organisation

This article was translated from Chinese. Read the original article.