This Season’s Export Forecasts for South African Oranges Reduced Again

In the July 26 edition of his weekly newsletter, Justin Chadwick, CEO of the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa, announced that the association had again decreased its orange export forecasts for the 2024 season, following a previous downward revision in May. During a meeting of the association’s Orange Focus Group on July 23, it was determined that extreme weather events in key producing regions had made it necessary to further reduce the forecasts for both navel oranges and Valencia oranges, with the latter seeing their biggest projection cut of the season.

In May, the export forecast for navel oranges was reduced from the initial estimate of 25.7 million cartons to 21.9 million cartons (15 kilograms per carton). Continuing this downward trend, the forecast has now been further decreased to 21 million cartons. The latest revision marks an overall reduction of 19% in the export forecast compared with the start of the season. As the navel orange season approaches its end, the final late navel oranges are now being packed and shipped. In 2023, South Africa packed 24.8 million cartons of navel oranges for export to overseas markets.

In the main Valencia orange producing areas of Limpopo and Mpumalanga provinces, harvesting is in full swing, while growers in the Eastern Cape and Western Cape provinces will begin packing their first batches of Valencia oranges in the coming weeks. The latest export estimate for Valencia oranges is 51.6 million cartons, which is markedly lower than the May forecast of 56.1 million cartons and the original April forecast of 58.3 million cartons. The current forecast represents a decrease of 11% compared with the original estimate. In 2023, South Africa packed 52.0 million cartons of Valencia oranges for export to overseas markets.

The primary reason for the latest downward revisions is adverse weather. The Western Cape was recently hit by floods and storms, while the Eastern Cape experienced strong winds. These storms and winds caused fruit to be blown from the trees, and episodes of frost further impacted yields.

Jan-Louis Pretorius, vice chairman of the CGA and a citrus grower in Limpopo, confirmed that there will not be an oversupply of oranges this season. The dry and hot conditions have resulted in smaller fruit sizes, and high orange juice prices have also prompted growers to send more oranges to processing plants.

Gerrit van der Merwe, chairman of the CGA and a grower in Citrusdal, stated that citrus shipments are ongoing and the impact of weather-related disruptions has been minimized. He further noted that the export delays are expected to be compensated for in approximately eight to nine days.

Image: Pixabay

This article was translated from Chinese. Read the original article.