Online Seminar Analyzes Market Prospects for South African Avocados in China

In October 2024, the debut shipment of South African avocados reached the Chinese market, heralding the start of the first full export season of the fruit to China. On Feb. 20, the International Fresh Produce Association hosted an online seminar focused on South African avocados. The event brought together representatives from the South African avocado industry and Chinese importers to evaluate the performance of South African avocados in China and explore the current trends and opportunities within the lucrative Chinese market.

Derek Donkin, CEO of the South African Subtropical Growers’ Association (Subtrop), provided an overview of the South African avocado sector. The country currently has a total avocado cultivation area of 20,800 hectares, which is expanding by approximately 800 hectares each year. Annual production stands at around 160,000 metric tons, with exports accounting for roughly 80,000 metric tons per year. In 2024, the export volume equaled the record high set in 2018, and exports are projected to continue increasing in the years ahead. At present, approximately 97% of South African avocado exports go to the United Kingdom, Europe and Russia. As an emerging market, however, China holds significant future strategic importance for the South African avocado industry.

South Africa’s main avocado-producing regions are concentrated in three provinces: Limpopo (56% of the total cultivation area), Mpumalanga (20%) and KwaZulu-Natal (18%). The country’s avocado season runs from February to December, with the export season lasting from March to November.

In contrast to the Hass variety, which is characterized by its dark brown skin when ripe, South Africa’s green-skinned avocado varieties — such as Fuerte, Pinkerton, Ryan and Reed — retain their vibrant green color even when fully mature. Additionally, green-skinned avocados have a thinner skin, a larger size and a distinct sweet flavor compared with Hass avocados, offering consumers a wider range of choices. While South Africa’s green-skinned avocados were previously primarily exported to Europe, they are now also available on the Chinese market.

Hans Boyum, commercial director for Africa at Westfalia Fruit, shared that as one of the suppliers behind the first shipment of South African avocados to China in 2024, Westfalia is optimistic about supplying the Chinese market in the 2025 season. In addition to fresh avocados, Westfalia offers a diverse range of avocado products, including frozen avocados, guacamole and individually quick-frozen diced avocado, with the flexibility to tailor its offerings based on customer needs.

On the production side, the South African avocado industry is very optimistic about the Chinese market. Trevor Dukes, CEO of The Fruit Farm Group, highlighted that the company operates four packing facilities and manages 400 hectares of self-owned orchards, alongside approximately 2,500 hectares of partner orchards and over 10 partner packaging plants. This extensive network enables the company to supply avocados consistently throughout the production season. The Fruit Farm Group annually delivers around 25,000 metric tons of avocados, with its peak shipment period spanning March to October.

Clive Garrett, marketing manager at ZZ2, showcased the company’s comprehensive capabilities across the entire avocado supply chain, from seedling cultivation and farming to packaging and export. The company’s export markets include the United Kingdom, Europe and Asia.

Halls, which established an office in China in 2018, also recognizes significant potential in the Chinese market. According to Yu Lifan, general manager of Halls China, the Chinese market could serve as a model for South African avocados to expand into other Asian markets.

Mabel Zhuang, China country manager at the International Fresh Produce Association, provided an in-depth analysis of China’s imported avocado market. Over the past five years, China’s avocado imports have exhibited a fluctuating yet upward trend, peaking at a record 65,558 metric tons in 2023 before declining to 48,984 metric tons in 2024. In 2024, the top five avocado suppliers to China were Peru, Chile, Kenya, New Zealand and Mexico. Peru maintained its position as the leading supplier, commanding over 71% of the market share, while African countries such as Kenya, Tanzania and South Africa have also begun gaining recognition.

Scott Lu, senior product manager at Dole China, analyzed avocado consumption trends in the Chinese market. He highlighted that household consumers account for 90% of avocado consumption in China. These consumers typically value food quality, health and personal well-being. The primary consumption scenarios include preparing baby food, making breakfast, supporting weight loss or fitness goals, and beauty-related applications.

According to Lu, small to medium-sized avocados are more popular in wholesale markets than larger ones. Large sizes, such as 14, 16 and 18, are primarily supplied to supermarkets, while medium sizes, including 20, 22 and 24, are favored in both retail and wholesale markets. Smaller avocados are mainly distributed through retail, e-commerce and wholesale channels.

Currently, avocado prices on the Chinese market are significantly influenced by supply volumes and the balance of supply and demand. Prices typically rise during periods of limited supply and fall during peak shipment seasons. In addition, the overlap between the supply seasons of South African and Peruvian avocados intensifies competition during peak shipment periods. As South African avocados are relatively new to the Chinese market, establishing full brand recognition is expected to take some time.

At the conclusion of the seminar, Grace Shi, vice president at Mr. Avocado, analyzed the advantages of South African avocados on the Chinese market from the perspectives of harvest season, quality and shipping time. South Africa’s avocado season starts early, with some varieties available as soon as week 10. Between weeks 5 and 18, Chile’s avocado supply is in its late season, while Peru offers limited volumes from the country’s high-altitude regions, creating a window of opportunity for South African avocados. However, from May to August, when the harvest seasons of South Africa and Peru overlap, Peru’s lower-priced avocados may disrupt market stability and weaken demand for South African produce.

South African avocados also hold an advantage in terms of quality. Most South African orchards operate on a large scale and employ highly specialized cultivation techniques. Their post-harvest handling and packaging processes are well organized and efficient. By contrast, small orchards in Peru’s high-altitude regions often face challenges such as less professional handling and low dry matter content. The consistently high quality of South African avocados makes them particularly well suited for ripening and retail on the Chinese market.

Shorter shipping times further enhance South Africa’s competitiveness. Sea freight from South Africa to major Chinese ports takes an average of just 22 days, whereas shipments from Peru and Chile typically require 40–45 days. This logistical advantage ensures that South African avocados reach the Chinese market with superior freshness and quality.

Image: ZZ2

This article was translated from Chinese. Read the original article.