Global Pecan Supply Tightens as Production Falls Short of Expectations

Pecan production has fallen short of expectations in both Mexico and the United States this season, according to a January report from Pecaninis, a Mexican company specializing in the production and global distribution of pecan nuts. Yields are forecast to be 15% lower than last year. Initial estimates from the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council suggest that Mexico harvested around 69,000 metric tons of pecan kernels during the 2024/25 season, down 3.7% from the 71,625 metric tons recorded last year.

In the United States, production in Georgia, the country’s largest producing state, was hit hard by Hurricane Helene, while unusually hot weather in New Mexico during the spring and summer further reduced yields. As a result, supplies are significantly lower than expected, with only around 36,287 metric tons of in-shell pecans left unsold from the estimated 263,084 metric ton harvest. Ongoing weather challenges, including droughts and cold spells, are expected to further reduce future supplies.

The tightening supply is reflected in rising prices. Prices for both in-shell and shelled pecans are already higher than anticipated, with pecan halves predicted to reach or exceed $13.23 per kilogram this year. Supply shortages are expected to leave many leading buyers struggling to secure stock in 2025.

Tariffs introduced by the Trump administration are another issue of concern. Although the planned 25% import tariff on Mexican products was postponed until March, the lack of clarity has led to concern among U.S. suppliers who depend heavily on Mexican pecan imports to meet domestic and international demand. If the tariffs take effect, pecans could become unaffordable for U.S. buyers, while Mexico could shift its focus to growing exports to China, Europe, the Middle East and other Asian markets.

Despite supply challenges, European Union pecan imports increased by 14% this year. The Netherlands accounted for 42% of total imports, followed by Germany (28%) and Spain (10%). Imports from the United States, the European Union’s top supplier, increased by 13%, while those from Mexico rose by 24%. By contrast, imports from South Africa fell by 40%, marking the only decline among major suppliers.

Image: Unsplash

This article was based on a Chinese article. Read the original article.