[Press Release] WCO Announces First Northern Hemisphere Citrus Forecast for 2024/25

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The World Citrus Organisation has released its annual Northern Hemisphere citrus forecast for the upcoming 2024/25 citrus season. The forecast was released on the occasion of the 2024–2025 Northern Hemisphere Citrus Forecast Outlook event, organized on Nov. 15 by the WCO, and is based on data from Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Morocco, Spain, Tunisia, Turkey, the United States and, for the first time, Portugal.

The forecast shows that citrus production is estimated at 27,297,216 metric tons, which represents an 8.73% decrease compared with the previous season. The 2024/25 forecast is also 5.88% lower than the average of the last four seasons. Total citrus exports are expected to follow a similar trend at 8,379,831 metric tons, down by 8.94% from last season and 9.78% from the average of the last four seasons.

Philippe Binard, secretary general of the WCO, summarized the outcome of the forecast: “The market insights we received indicate a decrease from last year’s high volumes. This is mainly driven by Turkey returning to regular production levels after last season’s record figures as well as Egypt’s expected decrease.” He added, “Climatic issues, such as late frost, drought, heat waves, or new pests and diseases are constant threats to the quality, colouring, or harvest date for the production. The market will still be impacted by geopolitical instability while consumer demand is under pressure due to limitation of purchasing power and inflation.”

Looking at the country-specific figures for the largest producers in the European Union, Spain’s citrus production at 6.18 million metric tons is down by 3.30% from the previous seasons, led by a 21.01% decrease in lemon production from last year’s record season. Recent dramatic weather events in Spain are not expected to have a significant impact on the overall supply, which remains as predicted. Italy is down by 12.32% at 2.76 million metric tons, with a 17.51% decline in oranges, while Greece remains stable at 1.10 million metric tons. In the other Mediterranean countries, Turkey is set to see a 17.57% decrease in production with 4.95 million metric tons, following last season’s record figures. Egypt at 4.35 million metric tons is down by 19.55% from 2023/24. Morocco’s production, on the other hand, is expected to grow to 2.14 million metric tons (+11.97%). Israel’s production is also estimated to recover to 506,000 metric tons (+18.50%). Portugal, which is included in the forecast for the first time, is projected to see a 3.37% decrease in the upcoming season (376,604 metric tons). The production in the United States is expected to shrink to 4.55 million metric tons (−4.28%), continuing to decrease compared to the average of the previous seasons (−11.52%).

Binard added, “WCO is also setting some trends for the expected utilization of citrus for the upcoming season. The Northern Hemisphere citrus exports will decrease by 8.94% compared to last season to 8.38 million metric tons, while processing will decline to 5.16 million metric tons (−4.15%), leaving 13.76 million metric tons for domestic sales (−10.21%.).” In April, the WCO will release its 2025 production and export forecast for the Southern Hemisphere.

Images: Pixabay (main image), WCO (body image)