Kenyan Avocado Exports to China: What’s Behind the 80% Drop?

Following a strong start in the Chinese market, with a 6% market share secured in just one year after initial shipments, Kenyan avocado exports have fallen drastically this year. According to data from China Customs, Kenya shipped a mere 742,934 kilograms of the fruit to China in the first seven months of 2024, representing a remarkable decline of 80% compared with the same period of last year, when imports totaled 3,674,463 kilograms.

Consequently, the earnings made by Kenyan avocado exporters for these shipments to China from January to July shrank to $1,232,149, a year-on-year decrease of 82% from the $6,830,140 registered for the same period of last year. Although China accounts for a minor share of Kenya’s avocado exports, local producers were previously hopeful that its large population would boost sales and lessen their reliance on the European Union.

When talking about the Chinese market, which indeed has 1.4 billion potential consumers, one cannot disregard the low rate at which avocados are consumed in the country. The annual per-capita avocado consumption in Asia currently stands at less than 0.05 kilograms, much lower than the 1.6 kilograms consumed in Europe. In fact, while 2023 was an outstanding year for Kenyan avocados in the Chinese market, with a total export volume reaching 4,342 metric tons, Kenya’s exports to the European Union amounted to 64,980 metric tons — almost 15 times the quantity shipped to China.

It is no surprise that this year, which has been marked by a drop in production and a subsequent decrease in exports from avocado heavyweights such as Peru and Mexico, Kenyan avocado traders saw better opportunities in the European market and prioritized it as an export destination.

Nicholas Ng’ang’a, chairman of Kenyan produce exporter Kakuzi PLC, commented on the situation: “While China, India, and the Middle East offer long-term growth possibilities, they currently lack the scale to substitute Europe. However, exploring these markets could provide a buffer against future market disruptions.”

Kenya started pursuing China market access for its fresh avocados in 2017, and it was ultimately granted by China’s General Administration of Customs in June 2022. Shortly after, Kakuzi, one of Kenya’s largest avocado producers and exporters, carried out pilot shipments in July and August of the same year. The 2023 export season began in March, with the shipment volume for the season projected to reach 20,000 metric tons.

Image: Unsplash